For Russia, extending its hand to the region might indeed be useful; for Saudi Arabia, the decision appears more pragmatic as its once go-to allies for economic cooperation have been the US and Europe. However, the Saudis have several reasons to no longer trust the West and to seek support elsewhere.

The proximity of North Africa to southern Europe, the liberal mobility policies of most European countries, and the historical links between northern and southern Mediterranean countries are all key factors encouraging people to migrate to Europe.

Israel would, in turn, not be able to appeal the ICC’s decision as it is not a member of the court. Whether a third party friendly with Israel and party to the Rome Statute could appeal on Israel’s behalf remains an open question.

The US operates at least 30 military bases in the Middle East, ranging from small outposts in Syria and military encampments shared with host nations to airbases under full US control. Some are large and visible while others remain highly secretive, likely managed by a combination of CIA or US special forces personnel. These range from a navy-run medical research lab in Egypt and naval and airbases in Qatar (the biggest in the region) and the United Arab Emirates to remote outposts in the contested desert zones of Syria.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, welcomed the statement, saying it “rights a historical wrong”, adding that Israeli courts were the place to determine the legality of the settlements, “not biased international forums that pay no attention to history or facts”.

The imbalance of forces between the US and Iran all but assures Washington of military dominance over Iran. Tehran knows this, and the country can hardly want to face an invasion. Plus, the apparent failure of explosives in the two seaborne attacks does not do much for the reputation of the Iranian military. However, both the ramping up of military rhetoric and the spectre of a long-time enemy looming large plays well politically for both the Trump and Rouhani governments.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has attracted global attention. Many questions were raised with regards to its scope, aims and feasibility. Now, five years on and with two major meetings concluded (the second was the size of a UN General Assembly), these questions are beginning to fade.

Considering the target and extent of the attack, oil prices have remained relatively stable. There could be well-founded concerns on the horizon, however, given the less than clear messaging on the damage caused to the Saudi facility and its ability to fulfil supply commitments. We could, in fact, see oil prices rise well above the norm while any other hits in oil-producing countries could tip the balance.

The effects of an attack on a major Saudi oil facility on 14 September 2019 have been felt far beyond the powerful petrostate. The incident brings a network of states and allies closer to direct military confrontation while rocking stock and energy markets.

The crisis hitting UNRWA is therefore not just a crisis of funding or misconduct, but is connected to attitudes towards its existence due to its symbolic affiliation with the right of return. Global support for the organisation still remains high but the risk of Israeli and US pressure securing the severance of its mandate looms nearby, and this could have serious effects on those who use its services.