Results for Category: International Affairs
But to replace Iran’s exports to Iraq, the US and its allies need to have Iraq’s ruling elites on board, which is highly unlikely given that many of them are backed by Tehran; and provide real alternatives for Iraq’s need for Iran’s electricity and gas, which is also highly unlikely in the next two years at least. Therefore, it seems that the US anti-Iran policy in Iraq is facing a deadlock.
Despite the display of unity, neither side could agree on a final summit statement. EU and Arab League foreign ministers also failed to agree on a text after Hungary objected to a section on migration. Nevertheless, the summit was deemed a success for simply bringing so many heads of state together in one place.
More aggressive to US enemies, arguably more erratic with US allies and with the financial benefit to the US at the centre of his foreign policy, Trump’s involvement in the Middle East has not been a stabilizing factor in one of the most turbulent periods of the region’s recent history. With at least two years left in the White House, it is too early to say what his lasting legacy in the Middle East will be, but the signs do not point to a positive one.
Non-refoulement is the central principle of international refugee law, which stipulates that nobody can be returned to their country of origin or any country where they have a well-founded fear of torture or persecution. As a compromise, the GCM does not explicitly include the words ‘non-refoulement’ but it does stipulate in Objective 21 ‘the prohibition of collective expulsion and of returning migrants when there is a real and foreseeable risk of death and torture’.
If more countries were halting their weapons deals with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, the Saudi-led coalition might be obliged to stop their war on Yemen – if nothing else, to save face as well as maintain their political and commercial partnerships worldwide. But some countries, like the US, UK and France, apparently need more than a humanitarian crisis and clear violations of international laws to react.
But what is certain is that the Rouhani administration is caught between two main scenarios: the first involving external (Israel and MEK) plans to frame Iran and the second, which has internal rogue elements working against Rouhani’s foreign policy. Both scenarios need to be backed up by more evidence and should be re-evaluated with every new piece of available information.
It is now clear all those experts were wrong. While OPEC may not be as powerful as before, it is still very much alive. Its alliance with Russia enables the organization to cooperate with 10 other non-member states, which is vital to limiting global oil prices, since OPEC only accounts for 40 per cent of the world’s total supply.