Although the scenario of a development dictatorship appears less plausible, the occurrence of one of the other two scenarios is much more likely. Both are associated with high risks and costs, for Germany and the European Union (EU). The central prerequisite for the “Mubarak 2.0” scenario would be permanent, substantial financial assistance, which would primarily be to the detriment of European national budgets, as well as the acceptance of a further deterioration in the human rights situation. In this way, socio-economic decline could, at best, be slowed. Migration pressure and radicalization tendencies among young Egyptians are likely to increase.
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In other words, the pain of sanctions will force people to rise up and overthrow their leaders. This is as naïve as it is cynical. It reflects the long-discredited theory that sanctioned populations will direct their frustrations and anger at national leaders and demand a change in policy or the regime. Sanctions have never worked for this purpose.
Critics charge that the survey by Dubai-based public relations firm asda’a bcw focussed on the 18-24 age group was flawed because it gave a greater weighting to views in smaller Gulf states as opposed to the region’s more populous countries such as Egypt, used small samples of up to 300 people, and did not include Qatar, Syria and Sudan.
The question is also whether the evolution of the North Korea crisis suggests that other crises like Iran could evolve similarly even if there are no indications as yet of that potentially being the case and despite the fact that Mr. Trump at one point declared his willingness to meet with Iranian president Hassan Rouhani.
Tunisia is tending towards a hybrid system. The crucial point here is that such a hybrid system would probably not be able to carry out the key reforms which both the international community and the Tunisian population expect. Reforming the state apparatus and highly corrupt economic structures is imperative to ensure sustainable social and political stability in Tunisia. Preventing hybrid political structures from becoming entrenched is therefore of critical importance.
Today, life is still difficult in many respects. Water is supplied from a place called Ain Dhikr to the north, but we still have no electricity and must continue to use solar panels to generate power for the time being. The JKBW’s presence also meant that some houses and other buildings were booby-trapped with explosives. Like other areas in Syria, we have been impacted by the fuel crisis caused by American sanctions.
Sadly, while most of the Arab countries were edging ever closer to Israel in recent years because of their common enemy Iran, the result of these elections will certainly deter further improvement of relations between Israel and Arab states. As a result, Israel’s regional isolation will only increase. Moreover, Israel’s very democracy, which has for past few years been teetering on the edge, is now poised to fall.
The fact that al-Bashir has been deposed will again raise questions about whether there’s a possibility of seeing the former Sudanese president facing trial at the ICC. Commentators have already expressed different opinions on whether he will or won’t end up facing trial at The Hague. Views either highlight the fact that he’s likely to face trial because he no longer enjoys the privileges associated with his position. Or that he still has influence over the new government and, as such, bringing him to The Hague would be extremely complicated.