The fact that al-Bashir has been deposed will again raise questions about whether there’s a possibility of seeing the former Sudanese president facing trial at the ICC. Commentators have already expressed different opinions on whether he will or won’t end up facing trial at The Hague. Views either highlight the fact that he’s likely to face trial because he no longer enjoys the privileges associated with his position. Or that he still has influence over the new government and, as such, bringing him to The Hague would be extremely complicated.
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Despite the immediate headlines, Trump’s tweet has little significance for the Heights. The international community, including the UN, is not going to shift its position on their status. And, while Netanyahu may be boosted, the Israeli presence will continue to depend on the strength of arms, the expansion of settlements and the acceptance of actors such as Russia.
The campaign aims to establish Turkey as a leader of the Muslim world in competition with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and, to a lesser degree, Morocco. As part of the campaign, Turkey has positioned itself as a cheerleader for Muslim causes such as Jerusalem and the Rohingya at a moment that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Muslim nations are taking a step back.
Israelis are more concerned with their economy and their security. Though they would like to resolve their long-running conflict with the Palestinians, or at least “separate” themselves from Palestinians and stop ruling over them in the West Bank, most Israelis see no safe or easy way to do so. However unsatisfactory it is, the status quo is bearable for them.
It is true that in the rivalry over the January 25 Revolution’s story and memory, the ancien regime had the upper hand. Yet, the regime’s attempt to enforce forgetfulness of the revolution’s ideals and triumphant moments does not go unchallenged. Although they suffer immensely, and many of them try to forget in order to go on with their lives, some supporters of the revolution are still – using sarcasm, arts and archives – countering and disrupting the regime’s propaganda and false narratives, both online and abroad, while re-presenting the stories and memories of the January 25 democratic uprising.
The years of egotistical tactics, corruption, injustice and systematic violence against civilians are ending. The people have spoken and unmasked the tyrants of dogma. They cannot hide anymore. The Sudanese youth are chanting: We denounce the religious brokers. Let it fall. It is already falling apart, and the Sudanese are well prepared to claim their country back.
Saudi leaders have scaled back their planned purchases and now only expect to build two reactors. If the Trump administration continues to pursue nuclear exports to Riyadh, it should negotiate a nuclear cooperation agreement with the Kingdom as required by U.S. law, and also take extra steps to reduce nuclear proliferation risks.
Prince Mohammed may emerge from his tour reassured, having been feted – certainly he would be less welcome in Washington or Western European capitals. The ultimate measure, however, will be his ability to manoeuvre and master a minefield of conflicting geopolitical interests, something he has not yet shown he can do.
The development of the situation in the coming weeks and months greatly depends on to what extent the government succeeds in improving the living conditions of the populace and credibly realising political demands. The question of how much backing the president can still rely on will also be decisive.