The displacement highlighted the resilience and generosity of Tripoli’s residents but also underscored the fragility of Lebanon’s economy.

Dana Hourany
A ceasefire deal that temporarily ended the war between Hezbollah and Israel, which had been ongoing since October 2023, came into force at 4 a.m on Wednesday, November 27. On the heels of this agreement, residents of southern Lebanon, the southern suburbs of Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley began returning to their homes after months of forced displacement. As a result, areas that had been crowded with displaced people, including Lebanon’s second largest city, Tripoli, saw a noticeable emptiness.
The seaside promenade in al-Mina, Tripoli, which had been bustling with activity for the last two months during the war, was once a place where children played games, people sat in small coffee shops by the sea, and others strolled or rode bikes. But by December, the scene had changed. The crowds had thinned, and it was clear that the temporary residents who had sought refuge in the city had returned home.
“Thank God, the influx of displaced people helped us financially, and we were glad that we were able to offer them a safe haven as well as a place for them to enjoy and spend time with their families,” said Ayman, 25, a seller of kaake (a popular bread delicacy) in Tripoli.
“However, the economic benefits were short-lived, which is okay, as long as the displaced were able to return home and the war ended,” he added.
In many areas of Lebanon, where displaced people had sought shelter, the local economy experienced a temporary boost. Rent prices soared, and the demand for essentials such as food and clothing increased. However, experts warn that these gains may be fleeting and insufficient to offset the country’s larger economic struggles. Lebanon has been mired in a five-year-long economic downturn, which has been further exacerbated by the war, particularly in the impoverished and neglected city of Tripoli.
Tripoli, the neglected gem
Founded after 700 BCE, Tripoli became the capital of the Phoenician city-state federation—Sidon, Tyre, and Arvad (Aradus)—during the Persian period around 300 BCE. Over time, it was ruled by the Seleucids, Romans, and Muslims, who took control in 638 CE. During the First Crusade, it was besieged and partially destroyed by Raymond of Saint-Gilles, Count of Toulouse, but was later rebuilt by the Crusaders as a thriving commercial and educational center. In 1289, the Mamluks destroyed the city and ruled it until 1516, when it came under Ottoman control.
Tripoli became Lebanon’s second-largest city, serving as a major port, industrial hub, and beach resort. Its industries included soap and cotton production, sponge fishing, and tobacco and fruit processing. It also served as an oil storage and refining center. A coastal railway once linked Tripoli to Beirut but was closed in the 1970s during the civil war.
Since the onset of Lebanon’s economic collapse in 2019, Tripoli has been severely affected, with poverty in the city already nearing 60% before the crisis worsened. By 2021, it had the highest poverty rate in the country, according to Khalid Tadmori, a member of the Tripoli Municipality Council and head of the Cultural Heritage Committee. Despite being home to several wealthy politicians, Tripoli has seen little development or investment. While many of Lebanon’s sectarian leaders have directed funds into their own communities to gain political support, residents of Tripoli claim that their city has been largely ignored, even as its politicians thrive.
Tripoli is one of Lebanon’s most marginalized cities and suffers greatly from infrastructure problems. Households in Tripoli rely on the public water network, but electricity shortages often disrupt water pumping. Many have turned to consuming water from wells despite confirmed contamination. The city’s outdated sewage system causes frequent leaks and flooding, leading to bad odors, insects, and the spread of diseases. Trash regularly accumulates in the streets due to poor waste collection and random disposal. Substandard housing in underserved areas poses health and safety risks. Poor street infrastructure, including broken pavements and inadequate lighting, further limits residents’ safety and mobility.
Despite its challenges, Tripoli provided refuge to many displaced people, offering safety through rented homes, free accommodation from individual initiatives, or shelter in schools.
Short-Term Benefits
According to Marie Kebdi, a salesperson at Croshina shop in Tripoli, the displacement led to a surge in economic activity, particularly in densely populated areas like Tal Street, which saw more foot traffic than the upscale Azmi Street.
“In our second branch in Tal, the economic gains were very palpable, but in Azmi, not so much,” Kebdi told Fanack.
She noted that in Tal, businesses faced significant pressure, with shops opening early and closing late to meet the demand, driven by essentials such as food and clothing, as well as the seasonal shift from summer to winter. Landlords also took advantage, raising rent prices substantially.
“It was clear that displaced people came from multiple backgrounds, and even gold shops benefitted, with wealthier individuals flocking to higher-end shops,” she said.
However, the economic boost was short-lived. “Tripoli thrived a little during the war, but the impact isn’t lasting. Once the displaced returned home, things went back to how they were before,” Kebdi explained.
For Kebdi, the city’s socioeconomic challenges are deeply rooted in systemic neglect, with its leaders unwilling to resolve its issues.
“This is Lebanon’s second-largest city, the capital of the north, yet no serious effort is made to address its economic problems. They want the population to remain uneducated and impoverished because it’s easier to exploit them that way,” she lamented.
Beyond the temporary economic gains, the displacement also had significant downsides. Kebdi pointed out that had the war continued, schools would have stayed closed, rents would have remained high, and even locals would have struggled to find affordable housing, leading to long-term damage.
Little to No Change
On the other hand, Anwar Mohsen, owner of Mohsen Shops in Tripoli, told Fanack that Azmi Street saw a significant influx of visitors despite its higher prices compared to other parts of the city.
“At the beginning of the displacement, many people flooded the streets to purchase essentials, as the displaced may not have had time to bring everything with them,” he said.
However, Mohsen also pointed out that the city lost many customers who typically visit during the December holiday season, as many did not book flights back to Lebanon this year.
“We have gained some customers, but we have also lost many,” he said.
The World Bank reported that Lebanon has incurred over $5 billion in economic losses due to the conflict with Israel from October 8, 2023, to October 27, 2024. Of this, at least $3.4 billion is attributed to damage to physical infrastructure, with the commerce, tourism, and hospitality sectors bearing the brunt. The final cost of damage is expected to exceed these estimates.
Walid Marrouch, Professor of Economics and the Assistant Dean of Graduate Studies & Research at the Lebanese American University (LAU), stated that the impact on aggregate demand is neutral, as the demand simply shifted from one area to another within Lebanon. The case for a positive economic impact through this shift is weak, particularly since the services sector, where the displaced people’s demand lies—such as food, restaurant, and accommodation industries—did not see sustained growth.
Regarding economic disparities, Marrouch noted that bombarded towns would lag behind in recovery for several months or even years due to the slow pace of reconstruction.
“A prolonged conflict would severely damage Lebanon’s economy, crippling the tourism industry, disrupting key service sectors like retail, hospitality, and transportation, deterring investment, and exacerbating social unrest and brain drain,” he said. These factors would further hinder Lebanon’s economic recovery and long-term growth.
Given the country’s ongoing economic crisis, political deadlock, and the aftermath of war, it is unlikely that the displacement had a significant lasting economic impact. Most of the financial resources from the displaced are likely to be spent on rebuilding their lives. The post-war phase has just begun, with an uncertain future, as the ceasefire remains fragile, with daily breaches from the Israeli side.