How the Latest Developments May Impact Syria’s Energy Future
It is hence very difficult at this time to discuss what form the recovery of Syria’s energy sector might take. Syria’s oilfields (with the exception of those targeted in airstrikes) remain relatively unaffected by fighting and sabotage, but the limited options for export and transport have resulted in shut-in production. Prolonged shut-ins can reduce the effective capacity of some fields, and the EIA estimates that Syria’s production capacity – or the level of production that could return within one year – has fallen by nearly 100,000bbl/d since the start of the conflict. Thus, from a strictly technical point of view – assuming the highly complex security situation were to be resolved – production cannot be expected to recover beyond 300,000bbl/d in the near term.