The GDP (measured with constant prices of FY 2012) amounted to 3,443 trillion rials, including oil, and 3,000 trillion excluding oil in the first six months of FY 2021. In contrast, the GDP was 3,510 trillion rials, including oil, and 3,039 trillion rials excluding oil, in the same period of FY 2020, which indicates a contraction of 1.9 per cent of GDP including oil, and 1.3 per cent of GDP excluding oil, in the first six months of FY 2021.
The real GDP in FY 2021 was approximately the same as in FY 2011. Real GDP per capita in FY 2021 fell to its FY 2005 level. However, the oil and services sectors recovered in FY 2022’s first nine months, recording a growth rate of 11.7 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively – after the return of global and local activity in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak – which led to an overall annual growth of 5 per cent. However, the agricultural sector contracted by 2.1 per cent due to drought and energy blackouts.
The World Bank expects Iran’s economic future to remain subject to significant risks. It also expects its average GDP growth to remain modest in the medium term due to weak domestic and global demand caused by the ongoing impact of the pandemic, as well as sanctions-related restrictions, particularly on Iranian oil exports.
The economic growth in FY 2022 reached 4.4 per cent, and the actual volume of the Iranian economy was more than 1,450,000 billion tomans (345,238 billion dollars) [1 toman = 10 thousand rials]. Due to the stagnation in the service sector in FY 2021 as a result of the pandemic, economic growth, excluding oil, was less than 0.5 per cent of the total growth, showing the impact of oil on the country’s economy during the said year.
As a result of the relative decrease in the COVID-19 virus’ severity and society’s acclimation to the new conditions, economic growth in the service sector was very high in FY 2022 and, as such, was responsible for a significant chunk of that year’s economic growth.
The achieved growth rate was about 0.3 per cent higher than the growth rate recorded in FY 2021, as more than 60,000 billion tomans ($14.29 trillion) were added to the actual volume of Iran’s economy.
Statistics indicate a sharp stagnation in agricultural activity during FY 2022, with a negative growth rate of 5.8 per cent compared to FY 2021, which led to a sharp decrease in the proportion of agricultural workers out of the total number of workers in rural areas. Central Bank data also indicates a slowdown in the growth rate of industries and mining in FY 2022, reaching 1.1 per cent, compared to 7.3 per cent in FY 2021. However, the added value produced in the service sector, the biggest saviour of the Iranian economy, amounted to 838 trillion tomans ($199.52 trillion) in FY 2022, compared to about 787 trillion tomans ($187.38 trillion) in FY 2021. Simply put, the actual volume of the public service sector in FY 2022 grew by 6.5 per cent compared to FY 2021, amounting to 51 trillion tomans.
World Bank data suggest that the GDP at constant prices grew between 2019 and 2020, reaching a 3.1 per cent growth in 2020, compared to the stagnant growth rate of the previous year. Also, the per capita GDP increased by 0.45 per cent in 2020 compared to 2019.