Neither Iran nor Hezbollah has ever deterred or even spoke about deterring Israel on behalf of Syria. Therefore, while Israel is focusing on degrading the ‘axis of resistance’ threat on its Syrian border, its adversaries are drawing red lines that once crossed could lead to an all-out war. The risk of this happening can be contained if both parties at least agree not to cross the other’s red lines. But if the situation escalates, as the recent case of south-western Syria suggests it might, international mediation – like the Russian one – will be needed to prevent a war.
Results for Tag: Bashar al-Assad
Following the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, he claimed that the regime of President Bashar al-Assad was responsible for creating the radical jihadist al-Nusra Front. However, he remains politically active, despite confirming Taymour as his political heir in March 2017. For example, he blamed Saudi Arabia for the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri in November 2017.
Whenever the war comes to an end, this challenge will become particularly difficult to manage. The shabiha will not disappear once their military purpose has ended. Instead, they will likely linger as organized crime groups, further eating away at the state’s legitimacy and slowing the country’s economic and social recovery.
Turkey today finds itself at a crossroads. Will the country manage to heal the wounds of domestic strife and extricate itself from the destabilizing vortex of Syria’s civil war? The answer will ultimately not only determine the security, the stability, and ultimately the development of the country itself. Due to Turkey’s geostrategic importance, it will also influence the stability and security of the entire region, of Europe and the West at large.
While Damascus residents hope for quieter and more peaceful times after the fall of Eastern Ghouta, they remain fearful about the future of their country. With the United States (US) supporting the Kurds in the north-east, Turkey supporting the opposition in Idlib in the north, and Russia and Iran supporting the regime, Syria continues to be a geopolitical powder keg.
The situation continues to be volatile, leaving the world and especially Syria and its neighbours on edge, fearing for the last scraps of stability they have. Once again, the recent air strike by the US, UK and France has had few tangible results, and many suggest they should have focused their efforts on trying to overthrow the regime instead.