Clearly, China would prefer to continue to increase its clout in the Middle East via the soft power channels of economics and trade. Yet as the region becomes increasingly divided and combustible, it may have a difficult time avoiding being sucked into the many interlocking conflicts.

The most recent blow to Iranian influence was the victory of Muqtada al-Sadr’s political coalition in the Iraqi parliamentary elections in May 2018. He reached out to poor Shiites, marginalized Sunnis and even secular parties who wanted a change in Baghdad. Although he cannot form a government on his own or become prime minister, he will play an important role in shaping a new political climate that is likely to be more resilient to Iranian influence.