An agreement to limit the influence of Iran in Syria could be the key for pacifying the current situation. However, an increase of strong reactions from Russia towards Israel, like continuing to limit Israel’s possibility of military actions in Syria, could lead Syria to become the theatre of a strength show that the country doesn’t need if it wants to keep its relative stability.
Results for Tag: Iran nuclear deal
As a result of these developments, China has become one of the wild cards of the Middle East, challenging and changing the established system there. While the sanctions were seen as an attempt to preserve American dominance in the region, they will have consequences that will indirectly challenge this. This is one US play that could badly misfire.
Trump’s policy is pushing Iran towards Russia. In order to preserve its position in the region, Iran knows that it needs international allies and backing. Russia, therefore, is an important international actor that can balance the US, which is backing Iran’s rivals in the region. According to Khamenei’s adviser, Ali Akbar Velayati, “Iran-Russia relations are strategic and will determine the future of the region.” Trump’s policy is only strengthening this view and hastening Iran’s shift towards Russia and the East in general.
A committee representing the protesters laid out a list of demands at a press conference in Basra on 16 July, according to the Kurdish news site Rudaw. These included: developing a plan for solving water and electricity shortages with a clear timetable; discharging foreign workers and hiring Basra residents in the oilfields; improving health and education services; firing many of the local directors responsible for security and services in Basra; and a number of terms related to transparency about and allocation of petrodollars.
President Rouhani, for instance, said that “the United States will never be able to cut Iran’s oil revenues,” and that “it has no meaning for Iranian oil not to be exported, while the region’s oil is exported.” More explicitly, he threatened to “stop [Iran’s] oil exports and see the results”, a threat praised by Qasem Soleimani in a rare public support of Rouhani by the IRGC commander. Later on, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Jafari said that Iran can make the enemy understand “what using the Strait of Hormuz for all or none means.”
For the hardliners, however, Trump’s decision has played into their hands. Sticking to the deal without allowing the dividends to fall on Tehran could have kept the Rouhani administration’s reputation above water. But withdrawing has cleared the way for an all-out political and media campaign against Rouhani and other moderates. Already under huge pressure, Rouhani is tasked with defending Iran’s rights in its negotiations with the E3, based on Khamenei’s rule book outlined in his Ramadan meeting with Iranian officials. With Trump’s withdrawal, Khamenei is directing the political scene in Iran and is having Rouhani’s team do what he deems necessary, without facing any challenge.
It will be difficult to tackle air pollution without a united political front. As well as a comprehensive approach, there is also a desperate need for closer regional cooperation, which in the current political climate is unlikely. If the situation continues to deteriorate, air pollution will become one of the most pressing political and security issues facing the Islamic Republic.
With or without US participation in the nuclear deal, transatlantic cooperation remains desirable and possible. After all, the United States and Europe share the objectives of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclearweapon state, halting its development of long-range nuclear-capable missiles, encouraging adherence to human rights norms, and curbing its activities in the region.