If jihadi groups continue to enjoy a similar level of online freedom over the next ten years, it will be relatively easy for committed entrepreneurs to build networks and plan operations. Jihadi groups outside Europe will also be able to recruit foreign fighters and direct attacks in Europe.

Regardless of who was involved in the deal, it appears to have sparked a confrontation between the al-Ammu militia and the allied Brigade 48 and other local militias, after al-Ammu intercepted human traffickers connected with a rival militia, Shuhada al-Wadi.

It is too early to conclude whether the meeting represents a breakthrough in the conflict that has torn Libya apart. Sarraj, a political novice who is trying to unite the country, might not be able to achieve that without the backing of Haftar, Libya’s most powerful military commander.

The security chaos following the fall of President Mubarak , the escape of Salafi jihadists from Egyptian prisons and the abundance of arms smuggled from Libya after Muammar Qaddafi was toppled in 2011 created the ideal environment for the expansion of radical groups and terrorist operations. Even with Hamas now apparently on the side of the Egyptian state, unless Sinai’s economy, infrastructure and education system are significantly improved, this situation is unlikely to change any time soon.

Nadia Ramdan, a Libyan market researcher, added, “Our security and economy are simply deteriorating. We cannot continue with this civil war, which only brings chaos to the daily lives of ordinary Libyans. Unless there is a political agreement, the situation will continue to get worse. If a political solution is not found and we continue to have a civil war in Libya, there is no reason why the Islamic State won’t resurface.”

Migrants in detained centres suffer from widespread malnutrition, forced labour, illness, beatings, sexual abuse, torture, confiscation of documents and possessions, and a lack of basic health care.

The problem after 2011 was that Libyan politicians were reluctant to establish networks and coalitions, relying instead on boycotts and vetoes to demonstrate their power. Leaders in Western Libya may despise Haftar and his Libyan National Army, but they can’t escape the need to build a unified security sector that responds to civilian authority rather than being a spoiler and a problem.

A report published in February 2016 by Amnesty International alleges war crimes committed by all sides, notably Islamic State (ISIS), which has carried out public executions, serious abuses faced by migrants and refugees, lack of access to hospitals and schools, attacks against journalists, human rights activists and NGOs workers, declining women’s rights and a dysfunctional legal system.

Today, Russia has a presence in almost all of the Soviet Union’s former zones of influence, namely Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Yemen, Libya and Algeria. Furthermore, it is getting closer to the other non-Arab hegemon apart from Iran; Turkey. The Middle East therefore represented the best forum for a show of force by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ironically, it is the Arab Spring – which Russian media outlets criticize continuously – that has allowed Putin to achieve his goal.

Mohamed Eljarh, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Centre for the Middle East, told Fanack that their defeat in Sirte is “a significant loss for IS, because they are all about territory”. “They lost their territorial control of Libya, but it doesn’t mean it’s the end of their activities”, he added.