The deciding factor may well be whether Netanyahu is indicted on one or more of the charges against him. While many of his supporters might remain loyal to him through another election, there is still the option of avoiding a new election entirely if Netanyahu’s own party were to decide to join a coalition with Blue and White. This would only be possible if Likud replaced Netanyahu. At present this seems like a slim possibility, but these are unchartered waters in which anything could happen.
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The crisis hitting UNRWA is therefore not just a crisis of funding or misconduct, but is connected to attitudes towards its existence due to its symbolic affiliation with the right of return. Global support for the organisation still remains high but the risk of Israeli and US pressure securing the severance of its mandate looms nearby, and this could have serious effects on those who use its services.
International funding for the Palestinian Authority for over 25 years has led some countries, especially in Europe and the Middle East, to lose enthusiasm for what they see as financing the perpetuation of the Israeli occupation. As long as there is no political framework under international law, the Israeli occupation will continue to dominate the Palestinian territories.
As in the past, these parties may well have the opportunity to change the character of the country, especially in a coalition with Netanyahu and the more extreme religious-nationalist right. Thus, it is not only the ultra-Orthodox parties that could change the character of Israel if Netanyahu once again struggles to form a coalition after 17 September.
Approval for the construction of the Gaza fence is thus a response both to a perceived security threat and to complaints from the leaders of the settlements in the areas immediately adjacent to the strip, who say the Israeli army is failing to protect them. In addition, the fence aims to further separate the Gaza Strip from the West Bank and East Jerusalem, potentially ending for good the possibility of a two-state solution.
One of the reasons underlying in Israel’s interest for the continent is the existence of a significant Lebanese diaspora in Africa. Part of the latter is suspected of funding the Lebanese Shia party Hezbollah, which Israel perceives as a terrorist group and a direct threat to its security. As a consequence, Israel has encouraged national businessmen to invest in countries considered as inclined to this Lebanese influence, such as Liberia or Côte d’Ivoire.
Salami will also oversee the activities of the Quds Force, an IRGC unit responsible for extraterritorial operations, giving him a significant say in the way Iran’s network of regional alliances work. However, as organizations under new management usually take time to stabilize, it is too early to say how the change at the top will ultimately affect Iran’s strategy, particularly towards its foreign enemies.