The upcoming week (9 - 15 June) promises a wealth of significant events across the Middle East and North Africa. From crucial economic data releases to transformative summits and vibrant cultural festivals, the region is poised for developments that will influence policy, market sentiment, and social dynamics.
Economic and Financial Updates
Saudi Arabia Q1 2025 GDP & National Accounts – 9 June 2025
The General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) publishes first‑quarter 2025 GDP figures and the comprehensive National Accounts report. Markets will scrutinize the year‑on‑year growth rate to gauge the pace of non‑oil sector expansion—critical for assessing the success of Vision 2030 diversification efforts—and to fine‑tune forecasts for fiscal revenues and sovereign bond issuance. A stronger‑than‑expected Q1 GDP print could underpin the riyal‑peg stability and buoy regional capital flows, while any slowdown may renew debate over the timing of further fiscal stimuli.
Saudi Arabia Industrial Production Index (IPI) – 10 June 2025
On the following day, GASTAT releases the April 2025 IPI, covering manufacturing, mining and utilities output. As a high‑frequency proxy for the non‑oil economy’s health, the IPI helps investors and policymakers monitor momentum in domestic manufacturing and industrial investment. A robust IPI reading would suggest solid demand in construction and petrochemicals, reinforcing prospects for private‑sector‑led growth, whereas weakness could signal headwinds from global supply‑chain disruptions or softer commodity prices.
Saudi Arabia CPI & WPI – 15 June 2025
Mid‑month brings the May 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI). CPI trends will inform the central bank’s view on imported inflation, consumer‑price pressures and real‑wage dynamics—especially as energy subsidies evolve. Meanwhile, the WPI offers early insight into producer inflation, passing through to consumer goods. Together, these indices are pivotal for shaping credit‑cost expectations, bond yields and corporate pricing strategies across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
Nuclear Oversight and Energy Security
IAEA Board of Governors Meeting – 9–13 June 2025 (Vienna)
The International Atomic Energy Agency convenes its June session with a dedicated agenda item on Iran’s nuclear verification. Delegates will review the 2024 Safeguards Implementation Report, assess Iran’s compliance with UN Security Council resolutions, and consider technical recommendations for enhanced monitoring. Although held in Vienna, decisions here carry direct ramifications for Middle East geopolitics—potentially influencing sanctions, regional diplomatic initiatives and risk premia on Gulf oil exports.
Looking Ahead
This week’s concentrated calendar underscores pivotal inflection points for the Gulf’s economic and strategic outlook. Saudi Arabia’s GDP, IPI and price indices will set the tone for regional growth and inflation debates, feeding directly into fiscal planning and market expectations. Meanwhile, the IAEA’s June Board meeting and OPEC’s oil market review will frame energy‑security and supply narratives that extend beyond the Gulf, touching global price dynamics and geopolitical risk assessments.
As policymakers balance diversification ambitions, monetary‑fiscal calibration and external security pressures, these data and diplomatic gatherings will serve as barometers for the broader MENA trajectory. Stakeholders should watch not only the headline numbers but also the nuances—sector breakdowns, compliance caveats and medium‑term forecasts—that will guide investment, policy and geopolitical strategies into the second half of 2025.