The impact of the European right on the Union and the Arab Region is undeniable, although many analysts believe that their influence will be moderate.
Ali Noureddine
This article was translated from Arabic to English
The European Parliament elections in June 2024 resulted in a significant increase in the size of far-right blocs, prompting numerous questions about the impact on the Union’s overall policies.
In the Arab region, discussions focused on potential repercussions for the Union’s relationships with Arab nations, its stance on the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip, and issues related to immigration, refugees and dependence on Gulf energy sources.
Extent of Influence on Public Policies
It is important to first point out that far-right movements within the European Parliament are sharply divided across several blocs with differing positions on various issues. This sets these parties apart from other ideological camps, which typically find it easier to agree on common agendas and form unified blocs within the Union Parliament.
Currently, far-right parties are still shifting their positions within the European Parliament, aligning themselves with blocs different than those that existed before the elections.
Despite their progress, far-right parties have not been able to secure a majority in the European Parliament or to prevent the center-left, center-right and liberal blocs from forming a majority coalition.
Consequently, the election of senior positions within the Union remains governed by the understandings of these traditional blocs, which describe themselves as moderate and tend to exclude most far-right parties. The process of electing senior positions occurs through settlements within both the European Parliament and the Council, following the election of the new Parliament.
However, the influence of the far-right’s progress cannot be underestimated. While these parties may differ on issues such as relations with Russia and NATO, the majority share similar agendas on immigration, refugees and skepticism toward clean energy initiatives. European Parliament decisions and legislation are often subject to mutual bargaining among major blocs, which grants far-right parties a significant role in shaping the Union’s general policies.
The growing popularity of far-right parties also impacts other blocs, particularly the center-right, which currently holds the largest bloc within the European Union. The increasing shift of votes toward far-right parties forces other right-wing parties to adopt more extreme positions to attract voters.
This is evident in the recent stance of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has begun to adopt stricter approaches to immigration and asylum issues.
In this context, the early legislative elections in France, following the European Parliament elections, reflect the expanding support for far-right parties among certain popular circles. The National Rally party, part of the French far-right, failed to secure a majority in the National Assembly due to mutual compromises between liberals and leftists in the second round.
However, it came in first in terms of votes in the initial round, establishing itself as a major force in French politics.
In Britain, the anti-immigration United Kingdom Reform Party garnered 14 percent of the votes cast. However, due to the majority electoral system, the party secured only four seats.
Nonetheless, the party has established itself as a significant force within U.K. politics, weakening the Conservative Party, which represents the traditional right. Although Britain is no longer a member of the European Union, these results indicate the presence and influence of the extreme right in Europe.
Influencing Relations with Arab Countries
The rise of far-right movements in Europe is being scrutinized for its potential to drive the European Union toward more pragmatic relations with certain Arab regimes. The EU currently opposes normalization with the Assad regime in Syria until a political solution to the Syrian crisis is reached.
However, France’s National Rally party advocates for normalization with the Syrian regime as a means to address the Syrian refugee crisis.
In July 2024, the French National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, announced its participation in a unified European parliamentary bloc with Hungary’s Fidesz party, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Orban is notable among EU leaders for his positive relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin which has remained steadfast despite the war in Ukraine.
Under Orban, Hungary has also maintained a strong relationship with Lebanon‘s Free Patriotic Movement, even during its alliance with Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance.
Given these dynamics, the new bloc comprising Fidesz and the National Rally is likely to advocate for a more lenient European stance toward the axis of resistance in the Middle East, especially if we consider the role that Russia currently plays in Syria. This is in line with the positions of Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has historically supported normalization with the Assad regime and has promoted this through visits and meetings with Syrian officials.
It is important to note that the call for reestablishing relations with the Assad regime is not confined to far-right parties. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing “France Insoumise” movement, also advocates for renewing ties with the Syrian regime, aiming to achieve peace through dialogue rather than sanctions.
Mélenchon, currently a leading figure in the New Ecological and Social Popular Union (NUPES) in France, which topped the results of the recent parliamentary elections, giving the union influence in the process of forming the next French government.
Dependence on Arab Oil-Producing Countries
The overwhelming majority of far-right parties adopt cautious and pessimistic agendas regarding clean energy transitions and reducing environmental impact. A significant part of their popularity in many European countries stems from the dissatisfaction of certain voter segments with the cost of environmental policies adopted by the European Union. This dissatisfaction was further exacerbated by major setbacks in the Union’s energy policies, which impacted inflation rates and production costs.
As a result, it is expected that far-right parties will push the Union toward more conservative and less ambitious climate policies. This could lead to a longer-term dependence on fossil energy sources, including those involving deals with oil- and gas-producing Arab countries.
The Union has increased its reliance on Arab oil and gas supplies since 2022, following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the reduction of Russian oil and gas supplies to Europe. The climate goals set by the Union have faced numerous challenges, regardless of the influence of far-right parties in the European Parliament.
Implications for Refugees and Migrants
The primary focus of far-right parties in Europe is the opposition to asylum and immigration. These parties share a nationalist rhetoric that is often hostile toward immigrants and minorities, expressing concerns about the impact of these groups on local European cultures.
For instance, some candidates from Alternative for Germany have embraced the “Great Replacement” theory, which claims that the white Christian majority in Europe is at risk due to increasing numbers of Muslim and black immigrants. They advocate for protecting Europe from “human-induced population change” rather than addressing “human-induced climate change.”
In France, Le Pen has become known for her extreme demands, such as calling for expanding laws to ban religious symbols in schools to include public places, effectively targeting the hijab. She has also called for prohibiting the slaughter of animals according to Islamic law, freezing the construction of mosque, and closely monitoring their funding sources. Regarding immigration, she supports the idea of giving foreigners who cannot find work three months to leave the country before deportation.
Regardless of the far-right’s share in the European Parliament, these parties have influenced other political groups to adopt stricter immigration policies to win over voters leaning toward the far-right.
This influence is evident in the adoption of the new European Migration Charter in May 2024, which allows European countries to detain migrants at the border and take children’s fingerprints. The Charter also permits the return of asylum seekers to their home countries if their applications are rejected, or their deportation to other countries deemed “safe.”
Adopting the Israeli Narrative
On the Palestinian issue, it is noteworthy that many far-right parties in Europe have aligned themselves with the Israeli approach in recent times, aiming to garner support from the Jewish voting bloc.
For instance, in France, Le Pen adopted an extreme stance, advocating for the evacuation of Gaza’s population to allow Israel to eliminate the Hamas movement. Similarly, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, following the outbreak of the Israeli war on Gaza, was quick to propose to the German Parliament the cessation of donations to UNRWA and a reduction in aid to Palestinians.
Many far-right parties have seen the ongoing conflict as an opportunity to target Palestinian resistance, which they view as a form of political Islam, opposed by these parties in Europe.
In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders engaged with Israeli public opinion through an interview with the “Jerusalem Post” in Hebrew, attributing anti-Semitic sentiments in Europe to heavy immigration and lack of integration, referencing the pro-Gaza protests in European cities.
This alignment with the Israeli narrative has led the extreme right to overlook the historical connection between anti-Semitism and extreme nationalism in Europe, which initially aided the Zionist movement’s efforts to encourage Jewish settlement in Palestine.
On the other hand, Israeli leaders such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have sought to appeal to the far-right audience by addressing them in their language through European media, exploiting their hostility toward Muslims.
Interestingly, this identification with the Israeli narrative is not limited to far-right parties alone. For example, the British Labour Party, traditionally aligned with the left, held a position on the war similar to that of the Conservative Party, resulting in the loss of many seats to independents in Arab-majority districts.
While many analysts predict that far-right forces will moderate once they gain political influence and are forced to make compromises within European Union institutions, it is certain that they will impact the Union’s overall direction. This influence is evident in the experience of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has made significant compromises within the EU, reflecting her impact on its institutions.