Trump’s approach is likely to strengthen ties with Gulf states while further distancing from resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict through traditional peace frameworks.

Ali Noureddine
This article was translated from Arabic to English
On January 20, 2025, the world will turn its attention to the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance, which will mark the beginning of a new chapter in American foreign policy.
While it is challenging to predict the exact trajectory of the administration’s approach to Middle Eastern affairs – given Trump’s unpredictable nature – one thing is certain: the region’s evolving dynamics will necessitate a departure from the policies of his previous term.
The landscape has shifted significantly since Trump last held office, making a repeat of his prior strategies unlikely. However, the appointments within his administration provide some indication of the direction the new policies might take.
Notably, these changes coincide with pivotal developments in the Middle East, including the conclusion of Israel’s war on Lebanon and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Against this backdrop, the Trump administration will confront a rapidly evolving reality that demands adaptive and responsive strategies, irrespective of its preconceived views.
Iran Braces for Trump’s Return
Since Trump’s election victory, the Iranian rial has plummeted, losing over 10 per cent of its value in less than two months – a clear signal of market anxiety over his impending presidency.
Trump’s previous tenure was defined by his campaign to apply “maximum pressure” against Tehran, including the withdrawal from the 2018 nuclear deal and the re-imposition of sanctions. His return to power has reignited fears of a renewed crackdown on Iran’s nuclear program and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp’s regional activities.
These concerns have only intensified with the appointment of Mike Waltz as national security adviser. Known for his hardline stance, Waltz has already emphasized the need to further restrict Iran’s access to financial and oil resources, vowing to reapply maximum pressure on Tehran. His remarks underscore the Trump administration’s consensus that President Joe Biden’s policies were insufficiently stringent on Iran.
Iran’s vulnerability has been exacerbated by a series of recent events. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria deprived Tehran of a key ally and disrupted its supply chain to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah, weakened by the recent war with Israel, has been forced to make significant concessions in the cease-fire agreement. In Iraq, a growing Shiite movement advocating non-interventionism signals a shift away from the confrontational regional policies that Tehran has relied upon.
Military Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Program?
The mounting American pressures on Iran are coinciding with the Revolutionary Guard’s loss of many of its regional power and deterrence mechanisms. Some analysts believe this could create a historic opportunity for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to pursue his long-held ambition of launching a military strike to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program.
Netanyahu has long supported the cancellation of the Iranian nuclear deal, viewing diplomatic solutions as insufficient and favoring military action as a definitive measure. With Trump – who also opposed and withdrew from the nuclear deal – returning to the White House, Netanyahu may see a favorable alignment of circumstances. Recent regional developments, which have further weakened Iran, add to this potential window of opportunity.
Internally, Iran faces significant challenges that exacerbate its vulnerabilities. In December 2024, the country was forced to shut down factories, schools and public offices to conserve electricity, as declining natural gas supplies prompted power plant closures to prioritize residential needs. These measures heightened public discontent, compelling Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to issue a rare public apology.
The critical question now is whether the Trump administration will exploit these conditions to allow Israel to target Iran’s nuclear program. While hawks within the administration strongly advocate for dismantling the program, they might opt for intensifying sanctions instead of military action, aiming to weaken the regime from within. Regardless of the approach, Trump’s return to power signals heightened difficulties for the Iranian leadership.
Israel and the Settlement Project
Among Trump’s high-profile appointments, Senator Marco Rubio has emerged as secretary of state. Rubio, a staunch supporter of Israeli policies, gained notoriety during the Gaza war for opposing calls for a cease-fire, instead urging continued military operations until “every last Hamas element is destroyed.”
He has echoed Netanyahu’s rhetoric, labeling Palestinian fighters as “human animals” and blaming them entirely for civilian casualties. With such views, Rubio is expected to adopt an uncompromisingly pro-Israel stance in shaping U.S. foreign policy.
Equally significant is Trump’s choice of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as U.S. ambassador to Tel Aviv. Huckabee, an evangelical preacher, has frequently led religious tours to Israel and is a vocal proponent of West Bank settlement activity. He dismisses the notion of the “West Bank,” referring to the area as “Judea and Samaria” and asserting Israel’s historical claim to the land as stronger than the United States’ claim to Manhattan.
Under the new Trump administration, any pursuit of a two-state solution based on 1967 borders will become increasingly unlikely. Trump’s previous term saw the introduction of the “Deal of the Century,” which ignored Palestinian sovereignty over the West Bank and formally recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital – decisions that dealt significant blows to the two-state framework.
This pronounced pro-Israel bias is likely to embolden Netanyahu’s government. Tel Aviv may leverage this favorable environment to expand settlements in the West Bank, further diminishing the prospects for a Palestinian state. The settlement movement sees Trump’s return as an opportunity to secure U.S. recognition of Israeli control over significant portions of the West Bank, effectively undermining the Palestinian statehood project.
U.S. Relationship with Gulf states
Trump has appointed former New York Representative Lee Zeldin as the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. Zeldin, known for his skepticism toward climate change initiatives and consistent opposition to environmental legislation in Congress, is expected to pursue the repeal of key environmental regulations enacted under the Biden administration.
With Zeldin at the helm, the Trump administration is likely to shift U.S. energy policy further toward reliance on fossil fuels, distancing itself from efforts to transition to clean energy.
This fossil-fuel-oriented approach will inevitably strengthen U.S. ties with major oil and gas-producing Gulf partners, particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
Trump, who has prioritized reducing trade deficits, recognizes the strategic importance of closer relations with these nations, which are among the largest purchasers of American arms. Moreover, his administration’s hardline stance on Iran will align with Gulf states’ security concerns, fostering deeper defense and security collaborations in the region.
In conclusion, U.S. foreign policy under Trump is poised to become more stringent with Iran while further solidifying partnerships with Gulf Arab states.
However, when it comes to the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Trump administration is likely to diverge from traditional approaches grounded in international resolutions. This shift could complicate U.S.-led efforts to normalize Saudi-Israeli relations, as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman continues to condition such normalization on progress toward establishing a Palestinian state.